L4T Leadership Series - Dato' Seri Nazir Tun Abdul Razak

5th of May 2009 was the inaugural lecture series for L4T (Leaders for Tomorrow) .

The first speaker is Dato' Seri Nazir Tun Abdul Razak, CEO of CIMB Group. He talked on "Opportunities in Adversity".

Dato' Seri Nazir is a strong believer in opportunity in adversities. He prefers to look at glass half full, and believe that great success can be found at the extreme end of the failure. He believes in people who have failed and then learned the lesson, picked ownself up and then rebounced.

He recalled the force of crisis shook the established order, and CIMB managed to grow as Malaysia's largest merchant bank after the crisis. Despite that, they still incur one major loss, which was a great lesson learned.

During downturn, do not cut back, and invest in the branding. CIMB went into Ringgit-denominated bond market and when came out from crisis, it had a niche there. CIMB was the only merchant bank not distracted by the crisis then.

Another scenario was in 2002, when CIMB decided to get listed, and made an IPO offer of 1.75 . CIMB has facilitated many IPOs, and hence is deemed as an expert in it. However, in the 1st 4 months, its share price does not move. It was terribly embarrassing, and it was as if CIMB can't even list its own company. The market could not readily accept the listing. So, it has to go back to the drawing board.

Understood that the market may not understand the business model, so CIMB decided to pay up around 20% of dividend within 3 months of IPO. That gave some visibility to CIMB and it tried to resell its new business proposition. Then, finally, CIMB went up 174% within 1st year and 363% within 1st 3 years. That was one of the great successes of IPO.

In 2005, CIMB market value was 3 times its book value, whereas for CAHB was just 0.9 time. CAHB got Mckinsey to look into what to do, and around that time CIMB has bought over GKGoh. Dato' Seri Nazir realized that CIMB was too small and hence, it would be tough to compete at regional level. So, the proposal was for CIMB to merge with BCB, and with Nazir being the CEO.

Back then, CIMB's market capitalization was just RM6 Billion with 1,000 employees, but today, as an universal bank, its market capitalization was around RM30 Billion with 36,000 employees.

Dato' Seri Nazir talked on personal career development. When he first came back from UK and tried to apply for CIMB, General Manager of CIMB back then, Robert rejected him. He was very dejected. Nazir appealed to Senior General Manager of Corporate Finance and eventually got accepted as employee No. 67. One of the reasons he got turned down was that he was not an accountant.

Steve Wong was his supervisor, and he is a nightmare boss. Worked late, and really expected a lot from Nazir. Nazir got scoled by him many times, but Nazir credited him for making him tough, and learn through the challenging time and it helped in the long term.

Nazir advised us to leverage and work as a team. Even as a rookie, Nazir has a council of advisers, whom he trusted and gave him impartial advice. He was fortunate to have Azlina as his wife together with him since his Bristol's days.

We need people whom we can go to and strategize, whether during chips going up or down. We shouldn't get carried away by status or position, as all those are just temporary. We should always keep our feet at the ground.

During the Q&A, Nazir mentioned that it is just impossible to do due diligence within 48 hours to decide to acquire another bank. It usually takes at least 6 months to do so. At one point, CIMb was about the same market capitalization as Barclays. However, Nazir mentioend that it is not impossible for Asian banks to take great transformation.

As of now, total write offs by banks are around $1.5 trillion and he expected maybe another $1 trillion could be written off.

Nazir complained that US lending practice is irresponsible. The leverage was just too high, and if in Malaysia, Bank Negara Malaysia would not have approved that kind of leverage. There are a lot of processes to check, even just for credits. US banks believed that house prices would continue to go up, so their lending policy was very lax. There is a massive need for US and Europe to deleverage.

In this region, the Central banks of different countries (Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia) communicated with each other every 2-3 weeks.

Nazir believed that this current crisis may mean that the colonial mentality would go away.

Nazir believed that we do not have much excesses and the disclosure of executive compensation is fine. The transformation to IB model and allow to tap on money market is good. This will underlie the logic of universal bank, where even Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley went n this path.

This could be an Asian century, if there is tectonic shift, and if Asian really make it open. China has an important role to play, and China has built up 2 trillion worth of reserves and have not been investing in investment banks. Today, consumers in Indonesia can buy Chinese goods traded in Rupiahs.

Nazir believed that Malaysian companies are not as competitive as it should be. Khazanah has done a good job, but it started at a low base. We had to get people to think regional, and very few Malaysian companies are ready for regional. He cited that Air Asia and Petronas are the exception.

On Vision 2020, he felt that we need a new direction and the new administration need to set up a new agenda and direction. We will not reach the number based on Vision 2020. The changing in paradigm requires us to adapt and change.

We need to always change ourselves to stay relevant and never take what we are today for granted. Others will catch up. Our role and responsibility will change over time and we have to reinvent ourselves. Every season is different.

On the issues of bringing bank Malaysians, Nazir feels that ti is very important agenda. Realistically speaking, we need to really go for them, and offer the recruits an enabling environment, and have a decent chance to get where they deserve. Some people might be feeling that the overall feel is that the country is not enabling. People don't think that they can truly achieve what they dream, and the perception is there, and it is derived due to some reality. There is a lot for the new leadership to do on this.

Nazir has gone on record a few times to ask for review of NEP. The policy needs to provide affirmative action, but need to make people believe what they build is theirs.

We used to be able to say "political stability" as a selling point for Malaysia, but now, we can't. Nazir stressed that if Barisan got it right, then they will be able to remain in government. 8th of March provided the check and balance, and the vote was mainly of people against Barisan, perhaps due to the arrogance built up.

CIMB contribution to our human capital would be to invest a lot to hire quite a number of them and train them.

In terms of property price, it hasn't gone down much for Malaysia. Worse is around KLCC area, where price has dropped by about 15%. We don't have a bubble built up.

If we are not at the right position, then we have to think to bring us to right position. We need to look at cross border opportunities.

As CEO, Nazir set the agenda and have long term vision for CIMB. It is to be a leading regional universal bank. To acquire a bank is easy, but to integrate it and enable customers to do cross border transaction conveniently would require huge system integration investment. CIMB needs to pump in RM600 Million on that. Currently, CIMB has the largest branch network in ASEAN.

System is by far the most critical component, and need to invest a lot on it, to get the system right. Need to be able to recognize the customers, irrespective of country.

On the merger with BCB, it is a huge transformational challenge. A lot of tactic involved, and need to get 80% of BCB senior management to leave. Nazir stressed on high performance and build in a 6-month Mutual Separation Scheme, where bonus period was within it, and those top performers were rewarded handsomely. In the end, 12.5% of ex-BCB staff took it up.

For Southern Bank, it was on infusion of culture. On Day 1, Nazir spent 15 minutes 1-on-1 with the senior management team of Southern Bank. People are happy with the opportunities, and they don't like politics or impediments. Nazir contacted Public Bank and Hong Leong CEO not to pinch Southern Bank staff initially. However, Nazir didn't inform his staff, and end up his staff pinched some Hong Leong's staff.

For any merger or acquisition to make sense, it needs to create value. Economy of scale is a thing, but need to look at the cost. For the merger, CIMB issue a report to show the synergy value and cost of integration and 1 year after that, has a report card to show its progress. This shows what it achieves based on what it promises.

On education, Nazir agreed that we have a big screw up in it. Our education system is found wanting, and Malaysians have been unfairly under-educated. And we need a long-term solution to improve the schools. Nazir proposed that we take 1% of the stimulus package to hire teachers from Mumbai, Beijing etc to accelerate the process to teach our students. Even this, we will only see the fruits in several years.

In the mean time, we have to live iwth retraining. The immigration department need to revamp as well, as the policy to bring a foreign labour and knowledge worker is the same.

Nazir stressed that the new Prime Minister gets the point that he needs to deliver, or else he will have no job to do in 3-4 years' time. Some of the stuff that the Prime Minister tries to do, he gets pushed back.

Thanks.

Next session for Leaders for Tomorrow would be Tun Daim Zainuddin on 26th May 2009 at Menara SBB, Plaza Damansara.




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Talk on Global Economic Crisis & Moral Changes

Invitation to Attend a Complimentary Public Lecture“

The Global Economic Crisis and Moral Changes”
by Prof. Dr. Arthur Kleinman of Harvard University

Greetings from Centre for Extension Education, Universiti Tunku Abdul Rahman (UTAR-CEE). The University is proud to announce that an inaugural public lecture on “The Global Economic Crisis and Moral Changes” will be held in conjunction with the launching of the Harvard Ezra F. Vogel Malaysia/Singapore Initiative programme. The programme is a joint collaboration with the Harvard University Asia Center and Lam Kin Chung Morning Sun Charity Fund.

The distinguished Speaker, Prof. Dr. Arthur Kleinman of Harvard Medical School, will share his insights into moral dilemmas and problems afflicting today’s society. Prof. Dr. Kleinman will also explore the dynamic relationships between economics, politics and the professions and, perhaps, even religions.

On behalf of the University, I take great pleasure in inviting you to this talk. Twenty (20) complimentary seats are also provided to members of your organisation on a first-registered-first-served basis.

The talk details are as below:

Title: The Global Economic Crisis & Moral Changes(programme information enclosed) Speaker:Prof Dr. Arthur Kleinman of Harvard Medical School(physician and anthropologist)
Date: 28 March 2009 (Saturday)
Time: 2.45pm – 6.00pm
Venue: Auditorium, Level 3, Wisma MCA163, Jalan Ampang, 50450 Kuala Lumpur Admission: Free (First-Registered-First-Served Basis)
*Refreshments will be served*

Kindly return the list of participants as attached before 18 March 2009 for registration purposes. For enquires and registration, please contact Rajes/Nitthia/Odie/Yong atTel: 603-79572818/603-79555181 ext 8212/8210/8201/8611 H/p: 6016-2233 563 Fax: 603-79573818. Email: cee@utar.edu.my.

Thank you.

Yours sincerely
Dr Prudence GohDirector
Centre for Extension Education

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January Trades crash

Our trade figures really look worrying.

This is quoted from The Star
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PETALING JAYA: Malaysia’s January exports were down 27.8% to RM38.3 billion from the same month a year ago with electrical and electronic exports falling due to a slump in demand.
According to the Statistics Department, although the country recorded a trade surplus of RM8.83 billion in January, its 135th consecutive month of trade surplus, month-on-month exports decreased 16.9% from last December.

It added that total imports decreased by 32% to RM29.47 billion from a year ago.
Intermediate goods accounting for 67.4% of imports while capital goods accounted for 16.4% and consumption goods accounted for 8.2%.

Total trade, including exports and imports, were down 29.7% to RM67.77 billion compared to a year ago.

It said among major exports, electrical and electronic products made up 35.9% or RM13.74 billion, liquefied natural gas made up 10.9% or RM4.18 billion while palm oil made up 7.2% or RM2.77 billion of total exports.

It said Singapore, Japan, US, China and South Korea accounted for 51.7% of exports while Asean accounted for 24%.

The top five import sources by value were China, Japan, US, Singapore and Thailand. Asean accounted for 23.3% of total imports.

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Talk by Dr. KS Jomo (16th Feb, 8pm)

Thanks to Jing Pei for sharing this!

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Strategic Information and Research Development Centre (SIRD) Publishing invites you to a public talk on

The World Economic Crisis and Asia

by Dr Jomo Kwame Sundaram

Assistant Secretary-General for Economic Development, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations, and Member, United Nations Commission of Experts on Reforms of the International Monetary and Financial System

Date : 16 th February 2009 (Monday)

Time : 8.00pm – 10.00pm

Venue : The KL & Selangor Chinese Assembly Hall, No. 1, Jalan Maharajalela, 50150 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.

Together with his colleagues, Dr K. S. Jomo was responsible for United Nations and other reports warning from late 2006 about the likelihood of the current crisis.

All are welcome. Please feel free to circulate this notice.

For further details, please contact Mr Zulhabri at 03-79578342/ 8343 or 019-389 3804
Mr Chong Ton Sing at 016- 379 7231

We look forward to welcoming you to this interesting talk.

Yours sincerely.

Mr Chong Ton Sin
Executive Director, SIRD

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Talk on Global Economic Meltdown - 18th Feb 2009

Lifelong Learning is organizing "Global Economic Meltdown: Its Implication & How To Cope".

The talk by Y. Bhg Tan Sri Dato' Dr. Lau Ban Tin.

It would be on 18th February 2009 (Wednesday), 7:30pm to 9:30pm at Auditorium, Dewan San Choon, Wisma MCA, Jalan Ampang.

Registration / Inquiry : MCA Lifelong Learning Secretariat, Tel: 03-2161 8044 ext 418-421 (Ms Law /Ms Tan / Ms Hoo )

Email: info@lll.net.my
Website: http://www.lll.net.my

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Insead Knowledge

For all of you who are interested in Economics, Business, Finance etc, do check out INSEAD Knowledge.

It just gave out the list of Top Ten articles for 2008. Do check it out here .

Do check out Knowledge At Wharton too.

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2nd Freedom Academy (16th to 18th Jan 2009)

Wan Saiful Wan Jan and Tunku Abidin Muhriz from Wau Bebas (under Malaysia Think Tank) would be organizing the 2nd Freedom Academy (January 2009). The 1st one was held successfully in August 2008.

The theme this time around is Globalization, The Free Market and Developing Countries. It would be held at Residence Hotel, UNITEN from 16th to 18th January 2009.

Sadly, I can't make it this time too, as it clashed directly with JobStreet.com Malaysia Career & Training Fair that 3 days at MidValley Exhibition Center.

Quoting directly from the site:-

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Globalisation and the free market are taking a bashing. The global economic turmoil has resulted in claims that we are looking at the end of capitalism. And, for many years we have been told that globalization, trade liberalization, and capitalism are bad for the poor and for developing countries generally. But what does free market capitalism really entail? Are the criticisms justified?

University students, graduates, and young professionals from Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia and Brunei are invited to attend Malaysia Think Tank’s second Freedom Academy which will be held on 16 – 18 January 2009 (Friday – Sunday) at Residence Hotel, UNITEN, Bangi, Selangor, Malaysia.

At this Freedom Academy participants will study in depth the true meaning and morality of capitalism, how globalisation has brought prosperity to developing economies, and why free market capitalism is still the way for forward.

Speakers from India, Pakistan, China and the United Kingdom will provide thorough and detailed analysis of how free market capitalism has benefited developing countries.

We are particularly looking for those sympathetic to, or are curious about, libertarian and classical liberal ideas.

Come and enjoy the Freedom Academy! You will be challenged intellectually and you will get an invaluable opportunity to network with like-minded friends.
The Programme

Come with an open mind, and go back with a good understanding of the positive impact brought by globalisation and the free market to developing economies.

In this Freedom Academy, we will discuss important topics including:

The financial crisis: causes and solutions
The meaning and morality of capitalism and the free market
The role of government
The impact of globalization on developing economies
How the market works and can the market produce social justice for the poor
Case studies from other countries
This Freedom Academy will be conducted in English.



Attendance fee

Fees are to be paid in full before the start of the Freedom Academy.

RM325.00 (only RM195 for Kelab Wau Bebas members, i.e. participants of previous Freedom Academy) - which will cover all meals from Friday dinner to lunch on Sunday, lectures, books, delegates pack, and accommodation (shared twin room) at Residence Hotel.

RM195.00 (only RM175 for Kelab Wau Bebas members) – without accommodation.



Scholarships

The Malaysia Think Tank can offer scholarships to selected applicants. You can apply for full or partial scholarships to cover attendance fee. We do not pay for travel expenses. The Malaysia Think Tank reserves the right to determine the value of scholarship to be awarded.



Deadline

All applications must be received before Monday 5 January 2009.

Successful applicants will be informed by as soon as possible, before Friday 9 January 2009.



Further information

For further information, please contact Noor Amin bin Ahmad via email amin@malaysiathinktank.org

Lecturers

Professor Julian Morris, Executive Director, International Policy Network.

Julian graduated from Edinburgh University in 1992 with a degree in economics. After pursuing graduate work in economics (leading to two masters degrees), he worked at the Institute of Economic Affairs and in 1998 was appointed Director of the IEA's Environment and Technology Programme. In his spare time, he completed a Graduate Diploma in Law at the University of Westminster in 1999. In 2001, Julian founded the International Policy Network, a think-tank based in London that works on global policy issues relating to health, environment, trade, and development. In 2002, he was appointed a Visiting Professor at the University of Buckingham.

Dr Khalil Ahmad, President, Alternate Solutions Institute, Pakistan.

Dr. Khalil Ahmad studied Philosophy, History, Economics and Literature, and holds a Ph.D. in Philosophy from University of the Punjab, and till 2006 taught courses on Philosophy and Education to graduate and post-graduate classes. During his college and university days, he had been an ardent Marxist, but two philosophers Sir Karl Popper’s and Frederick August Hayek’s ideas converted him to Libertarianism. Khalil founded the Alternate Solutions Institute, first free market think tank of Pakistan, and heads it. He frequently contributes articles on the current issues to various local/foreign newspapers including The News, Business Recorder, The Post, Pakistan Observer, The Frontier Post/Asian Wall Street Journal, South China Morning Post, Mint, Globe & Mail. He has published more than two dozen articles on the rule of law movement in the above-mentioned local papers. He has published a booklet (The Greatest Battle for the Rule of Law in Pakistan) on the rule of law movement in Pakistan.

Alec Van Gelder, Network Director, International Policy Network.
Alec van Gelder is Network Director at International Policy Network, a think tank based in London. Among other publications, Alec is author of "Dirigiste Divide; how Governments obstruct development and access to ICTs" and "Nashville in Africa" and his work on trade, health, technology and development issues has been published in many newspapers including: the Globe and Mail, Boston Globe, Business Day, Wall Street Journal and International Herald Tribune. Alec holds a Master’s degree in International Economics and Development from UCL in Belgium and a Bachelor of Science in Finance from Lehigh University in the United States. He speaks English, Spanish, French and Dutch with fluency.

Wan Saiful Wan Jan - MTT Director General & Head of Libertarian Education Project (LEAP).
Wan Saiful is Director General of the Malaysia Think Tank and heads MTT's Libertarian Education Project (LEAP). He is also Editor of WauBebas.org, a joint Cato Institute - Malaysia Think Tank project for speakers of the Malay language (Bahasa Melayu). Wan Saiful boarded at Sekolah Alam Shah, Kuala Lumpur, and then Tonbridge School, England. He went to the University of Liverpool, Northumbria University and Middlesex University Business School, London. He holds a BA (Hons) in Management and an MSc in Research Methodologies. Wan Saiful has worked for the British Conservative Party's Research Department, and, prior to that, the think tank Commonwealth Policy Studies Unit. He was also vice chair of his local Conservative Association, which oversees two parliamentary constituencies. In May 2007, he contested in the English local elections as a Conservative Party candidate. He is now Head of Policy for the Conservative Muslim Forum.

Barun S. Mitra - Director, Liberty Institute, India.

Barun is founder and Director of the Liberty Institute, a non-profit, independent public policy research and advocacy organisation, based in New Dehi. The Institute is dedicated to understanding the implications of contemporary public policy issues, and seeks to harness the power of the market to enhance the range and scope of individual liberty. The Institute has recently undertaken an initiative to make democracy more meaningful and participatory, with the objective of converting good policies in to good politics as well. Barun writes on a range public policy issues with a special interest in economic development, environment, entrepreneurship, trade, technology, democracy and related issues. He has been published in a wide range of national and international newspapers and magazines, and is a regular commentator on television channels in India.

Associate Professor Xingyuan Feng, vice-president, Cathay Institute of Public Affairs, Beijing, China.

Xingyuan is the co-founder and board member of Cathay Institute for Public Affairs as well as co-founder and member of Chinese Hayek Society. His research focus is economic and social order and is an expert in study on Austrian School of Economics, Freiburger School of Economics and Constitutional Economics. He has authored a number of books such as “The EMU and the Euro”, “Reducing Regional Disparities in the EU and Germany,” “Rural Enterprise Finance and Informal Rural Organizational Innovations in China.” Xingyuan has also co-authored the book “The European Constitution Making and Implication for China” and published dozens of newspaper articles and journals in China and abroad. Since 2006 he is Member of the Editorial Board of the Electronic Journal of Sustainable Development (EJSD), a joint venture between the University of Buckingham and International Policy Network, England. He is also Editor-in-chief of a new book series “Theory of Order and Economics Series”.





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Dr. KS Jomo sharing on Global Financial Crisis

Thanks to Chia Yee for highlighting to me this talk by Dr. KS Jomo, the Assistant Secretary General for Economic Development, United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs and member of the United Nations Commission of Experts on Reforms of the International Monetary and Financial System.

This talk was organized by Chevening Alumni of Malaysia.

He would be speaking on the Global Financial Crisis. Dr. Jomo said that he had only 8 hours of sleep in the last 6 days, so he might not be too awake. It is amazing that Dr. Jomo still looks very alert. He had to cancel his earlier two trips to Malaysia in August and October, so he was quite worried on whether he would be able to make this trip back.

Dr. Jomo highlighted that the current financial crisis is quite similar to the one as the Great Depression in late 1920s and early 1930s. The current financial crisis has spreaded to the real economy and US has been in recession since December 2007.

This crisis has transformed from subprime crisis to mortgage crisis to debt crisis to financial system crisis to the real economy crisis. It is currently affecting the availability of credit and it increases the cost of credit and both of these affect liquidity.

Technically, only China and oil exporting countries, which run significant surpluses can afford to run of deficit.

Dr. Jomo highlighted that Keynes pointed out several ways to avoid this from happening. He highlighted that UN has tried to highlight the carry trade problem, but it was not being addressed.

The current challenges are global imbalances, which is not stable. However, USD has been serving as the main currency, and this helped to assure the rest of the world to continue to lend to US government and household. There is increase inequality within and between government and this increase in economic insecurity is due to retreat of government, growing inter-dependence (globalization) and market reforms of social security system.

Europe imbalance has been growing since 2006, and US housing sales haas been on the decline since 2006. This credit crisis also caused asset price deflation.

Earlier asset price bubbles are due to:-
a) 1990 financial deregulation (repeal of Glass-Steagall in 1999, which eliminate firewall)
b) Aggressive monetary easing following 2001 downturn (Greenspan was being advised by his own staff to be against reduced rate)
c) Greatly increase debt-income ratio of US household (lucky that Asian save more than they use, and they can fund this).

Dr. Jomo praised the leadership of Gordon Brown in rallying other European countries to have a coordinated response to financial crisis.

The US financial crisis is not yet over. There would be more banks that would "go under". There will be de facto nationalization of particular liabilities on large investment banks balance sheet via Federal Reserve, as well as bailing out of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mae. The large scale bail-outs of US financial system likely, but continuous safeguards are unclear.

One thing to note is that UK governments own even greater percentage of its banks than the Indian government.

Since November 2008, China, Japan, Gulf States have been brought in for G20 meetings, but these meetings would not have the participation of other financial centers, like Singapore and Hong Kong. Before this, only G7 countries were involved in this discussion.

Dr. Jomo showed that globalization is partly of trade, but mainly finance is driver of globalization. Financial globalization does not contribute to economic growth and real investment (gross fixed capital formation) has been on gradual decline since 1970. However, there is huge increase in gross financial investment abroad (financial globalization).

Of the US policy response, the tax stimulus package would be largely ineffective in the medium term, as households save much of additional income. The recent housing legislation is going to help about 5% of the households only, and more policy response through US federal reserves, like credit guarantee, softened collateral requirement for financial sector and curbs on short-selling. There is likely of bigger financial stimulus from Obama.

Dr. Jomo described Dr. Mahathir, as "True American Idol".

Dr. Jomo highlighted of US employment contracting and also household consumption receding. Europe has even more unemployment.

Currently, US, Europe and Japan are all in recession. Slower GDP growth in OECD countries and increasingly for developing world too. This will limit the potential for US exports to sustain US growth. Over the last 5 years, finally Africa managed to get some positive growth (4-5% per year). Export-led growth in developing countries are slowing and EU cannot and will not take on external deficit as US do.

Looking at World GDP growth, it was 2.1% in 2002, 2.7% in 2003, 4.0% in 2004, 3.5% in 2005, 4.0% in 2006, 3.8% in 2007, 2.5% in 2008 and 1.0% in 2009.

Price for rice, wheat, maize has hit the peak in Q2 or so this year, so it is on downward trend now. The food prices are generally still high, although there is slight declining. For agricultural, there hasn't been much investmment since 1960s, and this is likely to be forgotten until next crisis hit. Africa is especially hit badly.

World trade is a more lagging indicator. The figure is as follow. -0.8% in 2001, 4.4% in 2002, 5.6% in 2003, 11.2% in 2004, 7.4% in 2005, 9.3% in 2006, 6.4% in 2007, 4.4% in 2008 and 2.1% in 2009.

Other limitations in growth for Asian developing countries are that the growth is not very inclusive, and growth is characterized by weak employment expansion "jobless growth" and even during expansion, inequality usually increases.

Looking back in history. In late 1970s, when many developing nations were growing rapidly, developed nations were facing stagflation. It is expected that in 2009, the per capita income would be negative. The recent reclassification of poor also increases the number of people below poverty line to increase from 900 Million to 1.4 Billion people.

Despite growing inter-dependence, the international co-operatiion is weak. Bretton Woods institutions, OECD, G7 and G20 fail to provide leadership. Declining aid since 2005 likely to get worsen with the slowdown, and this will exacerbate poverty and effects of rising food and fuel prices.

On implications for asian emerging markets, decoupling is unlikely. Poverty figures would be even tougher to get it lowered with the slower growth. There will be slow progress on other MDGs, without major social policy investment. There is a need to embed investment, employment and economic security policies in broader national development strategies, to provide sufficient liquidity. By reducing interest rate, it can only help to stimulate economy up to a certain limit. It is important to have fiscal stimulus package. IMF should help by giving credit lines to needy countries.

Previously, it took 15 years and a world war to create Bretton Woods. Then, 44 countries participated, including 2 colonies (Philippines and India) and this was created during world war.

Dr. Jomo warned that when economy rebounces, reform might stop, and this crisis could have been avoided.

For developing countries, they will be hard hit. The financial market of middle income countries would be affected. The slowing trade growth would affect all developing countries, whereas the terms of trade would affect mostly the primary exporters. The lower energy and food prices would affect those net food and oil importers. The balance of payments constraints likely and reserves may be reduced quite quickly.

On technical leadership in Asia, there is pocket of it in China/India, Korea/Japan, but not much in Asia.

When Dr. Jomo was asked on what might transform the Asian economies, he gave some "what if" scenario. Example, the possibility of inventing electric car with large enough battery, significant breakthrough in solar power or tidal power or nuclear power. All this might revolutionize the industry and world.

Leatherback turtles have been wiped out within 1.5 generation in Malaysia, due to plastic bags. Maybe new subsitutes of plastic bags can change our life.

The international regulation and national regulation needs to be thrashed out.

Keynes gave the advice of paying off debt during good time and accumulate deficit during bad time. This is counter cyclical policy.

On Malaysia's stimulus policy, Dr. Jomo said that a pre-emptive fiscal stimulus is good to have. We would be affected by this slowdown too, due to our connectedness to the world.

Dr. Jomo gave an example of before 1974, Malaysai does not have palm oil refining capabilities, but then the country tax on palm oil export and within 10 years, Malaysia has hte most efficient refinery for palm oil around the world, as we are most focused (due to economy of scale and scope).

On Islamic banking, Dr. Jomo defined it as dealing with bank instrument which are syariah compliance. Dr. Jomo said that most banks are into Islamic Banking, mainly due to the fact that it can make money. London and Singapore have overtaken Malaysia for Islamic Banking. Dr. Jomo also pointed out that Islamic Development Bank does not deal much in Islamic Banking.

On where we are in the crisis, Dr. Jomo said that we are not yet in the tunnel. Developing nations used to grow at 7-8%, but now it would grow at abut 4%, and for developed nations, it could be negative. This is also due to slower population growth.

Europe can't really export, as US has account deficit.

Dr. Jomo concluded that there is not enough right forum for many stakeholders to talk. Some countries today close off some options, as it is afraid that it would benefit its neighbours. We have a lot to learn from Europe on policy coordination. Latin America has a lot more discussion, leaving Asia still quite disjointed.

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Hope that you enjoy learning from the sharing by Dr. KS Jomo. He is definitely a fantastic economist, and from what I understand of this sharing by Dr. Jomo, we still have a long way to go, before economy would really rebounce. What Dr. Jomo shared and what Clinton shared, do have some similiarity too, especially in terms of policy that Barack Obama should carry out.

Enjoy reading!

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Click here to read more of Chen Chow's posts

Would encourage any of my blog readers to share with me any event that you come across. As long as the event/activity/initiative is education/charity/youth oriented and is not-for-profit, I would be more than happy to post it to share!

Bill Clinton Lecture - Q&A

This would be my 2nd blog article on Clinton's talk. The earlier one was on his speech and this one is on the Q&A part. For the earlier part, do read it here .

Clinton's response on the Q&As are:-

There have been some subprime during his administration, where people get mortgage even though they have no money and slowly have to pay back more. But what caused today's problem is mainly due to the institution that started to buy the sub prime in 2004-06, and the rating agency hasn't been doing its job. Institution leveraged it till about 33:1, instead of the ideal 10:1.

Clinton reminded that as Malaysia gets more successful, we would get more integrated into the world, and we would need to have new source of jobs every 5-8 years. And US have failed to have its new source of jobs for the last decade and it does not have good job strategy.

Within the recent Bush administration, it has 5 tax cuts, and 43% of American insurance are paid by government, and the government funded it through borrowing from China and Saudi Arabia. Clinton felt that US shouldn't have tax cut. During Clinton's administration, it was his hope to pay back all the debt to 0.

What currently Obama should do is to bring in more deficit, to create liquidity in the market and then when economy moves, only try to reduce the debt. He should try to create a floor on asset and get economy going. This situation is similar to 1930. Today, millions of Americans have loan amount that is more than the value of their property. Last year, 1.5 Million Americans face foreclosure, and this year is estimated to have 2 Million people, and if each of this cost about USD250,000. That's almost the amount of the entire stimulus. The stimulus would be dragged down by the foreclosure. Today, US banks still have USD600 Billion with Federal Reserves, but they are not willing to use it, as they do not want to lend.

When Clinton took over the administration, the debt was very high and interest rate was very high. Americans save too little.

Globally, we have economic instability, and the system might collapse. Today, 130 Million of children do not go to school, and we need to do something in it.

The current global response to reduce green house gas is not sufficient. For it to be effective, we need to cut by 80%, when the world population is going up from 6.5 Billion to 9 Billion.

One way is to try to put as many girls to work, so that we can slow down the number of new born and this would be an indirect family planning.

World Bank has also recently admitted that it has not been doing enough in the last 30 years to build up agricultural capacity.

Clinton also highlighted that if US, China, India and Russia can increase their energy efficiency to the level that Japan has, it would cut down 25% of green house gas. That would be a major booster. All these would need a global response.

When Clinton being asked about the biggest challenge for his Clinton Global Initiatives, he said that when they started in 2003, very few Aids patients have access to medical aids. Most of those who got aid are those from Brazil and Thailand, as their government could afford. What Clinton did was to negotiate a bulk purchase contract to push down the prices. The company still make money, but now through volune, rather than huge margin. This allowed more people the access. The cost of medical aid per patient per year is now about USD60-100. This has shed about 90% of the original price 5 years ago. Today, 4 Million people get medical aids for AIDS, including 1.4 Million through Clinton Global Initiatives.

Clinton argued repeatedly that those traders need to make money and his job is to create a sustainable business model. And the main challenge is that there is lack of clinics and medical staff to test the patients.

He highlighted in a rural village, where 2 orphans lived. A girl aged 12, have to raise her brother who is age 8. Their total living space is about 4 times that TV that Clinton was watching. After this Clinton Global Initiative saved him, he went to Grade 3 when he is 15 years old. Clinton said to him that "Make sure you stay in school." and his reply was "Absolutely. I want to be a doctor in the future to help others.". And this is certainly amazing and give hope to us on the world population. And this boy was rescued by an uneducated women who was trained to conduct the medical test.

Clinton highlighted that oil/coal may not be the most efficient energy. Landfill is not the right solution either, as it is an eyesore and produce a lot of green house gas, which is 23 times more than CO2. If we can process this waste, we can reduce this green house gas and create job and this waste can be created into biofuel.

Clinton Initiatives also helped to retrofit buildings, which help it to reduce energy wastage and reduce utility bill.

For US, actually, there is enough wind power to electrify entire US, but there is no incentive to invest in it.

For Denmark, it has 0% increase in energy usage and it generated 25% of energy through wind power. Philippines generate 24% of energy through geothermal.

Clinton ended with saying that we now have the biggest economic opportunity, and we should start thinking on seeing the world of what it could be.

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Hope you guys enjoy reading this sharing of Bill Clinton's lecture.

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Click here to read more of Chen Chow's posts

Would encourage any of my blog readers to share with me any event that you come across. As long as the event/activity/initiative is education/charity/youth oriented and is not-for-profit, I would be more than happy to post it to share!

KS Jomo's Talk

This is definitely a great lecture!

I called Nithi and he said that they are expecting full crowd. Just show up early and register there. Don't need pre-register.
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CHEVENING ALUMNI OF MALAYSIA

The Chevening Alumni of Malaysia invites you to a stimulating public lecture on

GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS

by

Dr K. S. JOMO

Assistant Secretary-General for Economic Development,

Department of Economic and Social Affairs

United Nations

&

Member, United Nations Commission of Experts on Reforms

of the International Monetary and Financial System

Date: Thursday, December 4, 2008

Time: 7.45 to 10.00pm

Venue: Auditorium, Securities Commission

3, Persiaran Bukit Kiara, Bukit Kiara, 50490 Kuala Lumpur

Cost: Free

For map, see:http://www.sc.com.my/eng/html/organisation/roadmap_eng.html

Dr K S Jomo is widely perceived to be an outspoken intellectual with unorthodox non-partisan views. Hence, his analytical review of the present global financial crisis will be exciting and insightful. A question and answer session will follow his presentation.

Confirm your attendance by registering at info@cheveningalumni.org.my

For details, call me at 017-307-9313. Feel free to circulate this notice.

We look forward to welcoming you to this timely forum.

Nithi Nesadurai

President

The Chevening Alumni of Malaysia is an association of recipients of the Chevening Scholarship awarded by the British Government for study in the United Kingdom. It launched its public forum series in 2007 to raise awareness on topical issues.

2 Malaysians Among 10 in UN Commission of Experts on Reforms of the International Monetary and Financial System

United Nations (UN) today formed the Commission of Experts on Reforms of the International Monetary and Financial System.

United Nations General Assembly President, Miguel D'Escoto, announced the list today, which would examine possible reform of the global financial system, including the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, in the wake of financial crisis.

Chair: Joseph Stiglitz (US), Nobel Prize for Economics for 2001

The rest of the committee:-
- Jomo Kwame Sundaram (Malaysia), Assistant Secretary-General for Economic Development and the UN Department of the Economic and Social Affairs (DESA)
- Tan Sri Zeti Akhtar Aziz (Malaysia), Governor and Chairman of Malaysia's Central Bank
- Jose Antonio Ocampo (Colombia), Former Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs (DESA)
- Jean-Paul Fitoussi (France), Professor of Economics at the Institute d'Etudes Politiques de Paris in France
- Avinash Persaud (Barbados), Chairman of Intelligence Capital Limited
- Yaga Venugopal Reddy (India), Former Governor of India's Reserve Bank
- Eisuke Sakakibara (Japan), Professor at Waseda University
- Chukwuma Soludo (Nigeria), Governor of Nigeria's Central Bank
- Yu Yongding (China), Director of the Institute of World Economics and Politics

Great to see 2 Malaysians in this commission of 10 experts to solve this global issue!

For full report, do read here from United Nations

Full article is as follow:-
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General Assembly President unveils details of panel probing global financial system

14 November 2008 – General Assembly President Miguel D’Escoto today announced the full composition of a high-level task force he is setting up to examine possible reform of the global financial system, including the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, in the wake of the current economic turmoil.
Joseph Stiglitz, who won the Nobel Prize for Economics in 2001 and is a former chief economist at the World Bank, will chair the Commission of Experts on Reforms of the International Monetary and Financial System, which will suggest steps that Member States can take to secure a more stable global economic order.

Jomo Kwame Sundaram, the current Assistant Secretary-General for Economic Development and the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA), and José Antonio Ocampo of Colombia, who is a former Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs, were also named to the panel.

The Commission’s other members include: Zeti Akhtar Aziz, the Governor and Chairman of Malaysia’s Central Bank; Jean-Paul Fitoussi, Professor of Economics at the Institute d’Etudes Politiques de Paris in France; Avinash Persaud of Barbados, who is Chairman of Intelligence Capital Limited; and Yaga Venugopal Reddy, former governor of India’s Reserve Bank.

Also on the panel are: Japan’s Eisuke Sakakibara, who is currently Professor at Waseda University in Tokyo; Chukwuma Soludo, the Governor of Nigeria’s Central Bank; and China’s Yu Yongding, the Director of the Institute of World Economics and Politics.

When Mr D’Escoto announced the formation of the panel last month, he noted that “there is growing recognition that the current turmoil in the financial system cannot be solved through piecemeal responses at the national and regional levels but requires a coordinated effort at the global level.”


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Malaysia New Economic Stimulus Package

Datuk Seri Najib bin Tun Abdul Razak, our new Finance Minister 1, unveiled an interesting economic stimulus package.

Below are the quotation from The Star

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KUALA LUMPUR: The Government dialled down its projected gross domestic product (GDP) growth for 2009 from 5.4% to 3.5%, but said it would inject RM7bil to strengthen the economy and boost confidence within the private sector.

The RM7bil will come mainly from savings earned from the reduction of fuel subsidies announced earlier this year, Finance Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak said in Parliament here on Tuesday when announcing the Government’s economic stimulus package (full speech in Bahasa Malaysia below).

The budget deficit is projected to rise to 4.8% from the 3.6% expected earlier, after estimated revenues were dialled down from RM176.22 billion to RM168.73 billion.

The inflation rate is expected to hold steady at around 3-4%, he said in announcing the revised Budget 2009.

His briefing on the stimulus package in Parliament was interrupted several times by Pakatan Rakyat Members of Parliament.

Speaker Tan Sr Pandikar Amin Mulia ordered Batu MP Tian Chua to leave for disobeying his instructions, which led to Opposition MPs walking out in protest.

Among the measures Najib announced were:

1) RM1.2bil to be allocated to build more low- and medium-cost houses;

2) Abolishing the 5% import duties on fertilisers, cement and steel;

3) Allowing hypermarkets to close late (weekdays 11pm; weekends 1am);

4) RM500mil for the maintenance of police stations and quarters, as well as Army camps;

5) RM200mil for Chinese, Tamil, religious and mission schools;

6) RM200mil for pre-school education; and

7) Employees can reduce their EPF contributions by 3% on a voluntary basis for up to two years.


UCAPAN MENGGULUNG PERBAHASAN BAJET 2009 DI PERINGKAT DASAR BAGI KEMENTERIAN KEWANGAN DI DEWAN RAKYAT PADA 4 NOVEMBER 2008


BISMILLAHIRRAHMANIRRAHIM

Tuan Yang DiPertua,


1. Terlebih dahulu, saya ingin mengucapkan terima kasih kepada Ahli-ahli Yang Berhormat yang telah mengambil bahagian dalam sesi perbahasan Bajet 2009, khususnya yang membabitkan perkara-perkara di bawah bidang kuasa Kementerian Kewangan.

Banyak perkara yang telah ditimbulkan semasa perbahasan tersebut dan Kementerian Kewangan akan memberi perhatian terhadap semua teguran dan berusaha melaksanakan cadangan yang sesuai yang telah dikemukakan.

Ini bertujuan untuk memastikan pelaksanaan Bajet 2009 dapat mencapai matlamat yang dinyatakan dalam Ucapan Bajet oleh YAB Perdana Menteri pada 29 Ogos 2008 yang lalu.


2. Penggulungan pada kali ini mencatat sejarah kerana jawatan Menteri Kewangan Malaysia beralih selepas pembentangan Bajet 2009 dan sebelum penggulungannya. Di sini izinkan saya merakamkan penghargaan dan terima kasih kepada YAB Perdana Menteri di atas keyakinan beliau melantik saya mengambil alih porfolio Menteri Kewangan.

YAB juga telah berjaya menguruskan sebuah ekonomi yang mempunyai asas yang kukuh dan berdaya tahan.


3. Keduanya, kerana tercetus ledakan krisis kewangan global selepas pembentangan Bajet 2009 di Amerika Syarikat dan Eropah yang bahangnya sedang dirasai oleh dunia termasuk Malaysia. Justeru itu, Tuan Yang Dipertua, saya tidak akan mengambil sikap untuk semata-mata menjawab semua teguran dan cadangan seperti amalan biasa waktu perbahasan penggulungan.

Sebaliknya di samping melakukan perkara tersebut, saya bercadang untuk membentang langkah-langkah tambahan sebagai “Policy Response” terhadap krisis kewangan dunia agar ekonomi Malaysia terjamin pertumbuhan dan rakyat Malaysia tidak terlalu tertekan. Kerajaan beriltizam untuk melakukan segala yang termampu untuk terus membela rakyat dan menyelamatkan ekonomi negara.


4. Ingin dimaklumkan bahawa saya berhasrat untuk memberi laluan penjelasan hanya selepas saya membentangkan langkah-langkah tambahan bagi Bajet 2009.


5. Semasa awal perbahasan Bajet 2009 ini, beberapa Ahli Yang Berhormat daripada pihak pembangkang telah menyarankan agar Bajet 2009 dikaji sepenuhnya dan dibentangkan semula kepada Parlimen, berikutan perubahan iklim ekonomi dunia sejak akhir-akhir ini.

Kerajaan tidak akan membentangkan bajet baru 2009. Desakan untuk merobah keseluruhan dan membentang semula Bajet 2009 hanya akan membantutkan usaha Kerajaan untuk memastikan momentum pertumbuhan ekonomi negara dapat dicapai.

Kerajaan akan terus menumpukan perhatian kepada usaha mengurus hal ehwal negara dan memperbaiki kehidupan rakyat agar ekonomi negara tidak akan melanda kemelesetan.

Oleh yang demikian, adalah penting untuk meneruskan rancangan perbelanjaan Kerajaan bagi tahun 2009 demi memastikan pertumbuhan ekonomi yang mapan untuk kesejahteraan rakyat.


6. Saya ingin menegaskan kepada Dewan yang mulia ini bahawa Kerajaan sentiasa sedar dan memantau rapi perkembangan ekonomi di peringkat global dan domestik.

Ketidaktentuan dan impak krisis kewangan global ini telah membawa implikasi negatif kepada pasaran kewangan negara kita. Alhamdulillah, dasar, kawalselia serta langkah berhemah Kerajaan yang telah dipraktikkan sebelum ini telah menjadikan asas-asas kewangan negara kekal kukuh.


7. Tidak seperti krisis kewangan Asia 1997/98 dulu, pasaran kewangan dan hartanah Malaysia tidak dibelenggu petanda-petanda (symptoms) “speculative bubble” di dalam pasaran kewangan dan hartanah domestik.

Selain itu, Malaysia tidak terdedah kepada penularan produk kewangan inovatif yang kompleks dan tidak dikawal, yang merupakan antara punca utama krisis subprima dan kewangan di peringkat antarabangsa.

Sementara itu, sebahagian aset pasaran modal di Malaysia adalah berteraskan prinsip syariah yang mengamalkan tahap hutang dan pengurusan kewangan yang berhemah.


8. Tambahan lagi, jumlah tabungan negara berada pada paras yang tinggi iaitu sebanyak 37 peratus daripada Keluaran Dalam Negara Kasar (KDNK). Ini mencerminkan negara mempunyai lebihan mudah tunai yang boleh digunakan untuk menjana aktiviti ekonomi.

Sektor perbankan kekal kukuh dengan hutang tak berbayar (NPL) yang rendah iaitu 2.5 peratus dan nisbah modal berwajaran risiko (RWCR) sebanyak 13.2 peratus, jauh melebihi paras 8 peratus dalam piawaian antarabangsa.


9. Semua pencapaian ini tidak berlaku secara kebetulan. Selain daripada kepimpinan politik yang berhemah dan bijaksana, kerajaan juga mengiktiraf peranan badan kawalselia seperti Bank Negara dan Suruhanjaya Sekuriti yang telah melaksanakan tugas mereka secara profesional bagi mengawal-selia sistem kewangan agar sentiasa berada di landasan yang betul.

Pendekatan kerajaan yang menguruskan ekonomi yang dulunya di anggap unorthodox (melawan arus), tetapi kini telah diiktiraf sebagai satu keperluan bagi mengatasi kemelut ekonomi terkini yang melanda ekonomi negara besar dunia.


10. Namun yang demikian, kerajaan bukannya “in denial” ataupun menidakkan yang nyata dan benar sebagaimana tuduhan pembangkang. Walaupun Malaysia tidak mengalami krisis kewangan secara langsung dan mempunyai asas-asas kewangan yang kukuh, kita sedar bahawa Malaysia tidak terkecuali atau terlindung daripada menghadapi risiko perkembangan global yang amat mencabar ini.

11.Bajet 2009 telah dirangka dengan mengambil kira pelbagai faktor dan ianya tidak perlu dikaji semula sepenuhnya. Bajet 2009 sememangnya sudahpun mengunjurkan pertumbuhan ekonomi yang lebih perlahan bagi tahun 2009. Sebagai Kerajaan yang prihatin, penekanan telah diberi kepada pembangunan sosioekonomi masyarakat, terutamanya yang miskin dan berpendapatan rendah selain daripada memberi tumpuan kepada pertumbuhan ekonomi yang mapan. Dalam perkara ini, penekanan telah diberi kepada perluasan Jaringan Keselamatan Sosial untuk menyokong golongan miskin dan berpendapatan rendah, di desa dan di kota, di pekan kecil dan kampung terpencil.

12.Ini selari dengan hasrat kita untuk menghapuskan kemiskinan tegar menjelang 2010, seperti yang disasarkan oleh YAB Perdana Menteri. Sebagai pengganti beliau di Kementerian Kewangan, saya akan pastikan hasrat murni ini akan tercapai. Ini juga secara langsung dapat meningkatkan kuasa beli rakyat dan merangsang pertumbuhan permintaan dalam negeri. Penekanan juga diberi kepada pelaksanaan program dan projek Rancangan Malaysia Kesembilan terutamanya yang berimpak tinggi untuk menjana pertumbuhan ekonomi negara yang berdaya tahan.

13.Dengan itu, Kerajaan komited untuk mengambil langkah-langkah yang sesuai bagi mengukuhkan tahap keyakinan di dalam negeri dan terus menjamin kesejahteraan rakyat. Walaupun hasil Kerajaan akan berkurangan ketika penurunan harga komoditi yang mendadak serta permintaan global yang lembab, Kerajaan akan terus melaksanakan langkah perbelanjaan yang telah dirancangkan. Ini termasuk memperluaskan program Jaringan Keselamatan Sosial, memperkasakan pendidikan, membangunkan infrastruktur sokongan dan membangunkan kawasan luar bandar, termasuk di Sabah dan Sarawak.

14.Kerajaan yakin ekonomi negara pada tahun ini mempunyai daya tahan untuk menghadapi persekitaran global yang mencabar kerana momentum pertumbuhan ekonomi negara terus kukuh. Pertumbuhan ekonomi domestik disokong, terutamanya oleh peningkatan perbelanjaan permintaan dalam negeri. Berdasarkan senario ini, saya yakin dan percaya negara akan mencapai sekurang-kurangnya 5 peratus pertumbuhan KDNK bagi tahun 2008.

15.Penunjuk ekonomi global sejak akhir-akhir ini semakin membimbangkan yang dijangka memberi kesan negatif kepada pertumbuhan ekonomi global dan perdagangan antarabangsa pada tahun hadapan. Berikutan itu, banyak negara termasuk di rantau Asia, telah menyemak semula unjuran pertumbuhan KDNK kepada paras yang lebih rendah. Ini termasuklah Singapura yang telah menurunkan anggaran pertumbuhan KDNK daripada 4 atau 5 peratus kepada 3 peratus bagi tahun 2008. Bagi tahun 2009, negara India juga telah menurunkan anggaran pertumbuhan daripada 8.5 peratus kepada 7.7 peratus, manakala pertumbuhan negara China dijangka menurun daripada 9.7 peratus kepada 9.3 peratus.

16.Dengan mengambil kira kesemua faktor global dan domestik serta pelaksanaan langkah-langkah tambahan Bajet 2009, saya dengan ini mengumumkan bahawa sasaran pertumbuhan KDNK yang dikaji semula pada tahun 2009 ialah 3.5 peratus. Ini masih ditahap yang memuaskan berdasarkan kepada senario ekonomi global semasa.

17.Sementara itu defisit fiskal Kerajaan bagi tahun 2009 masih ditahap yang terkawal yang dianggarkan sebanyak 4.8 peratus. Punca defisit ini ialah kerana kerajaan memilih untuk terus mengadakan bajet yang mengekalkan momentum pertumbuhan ekonomi. Tahap ini adalah serupa dengan anggaran defisit tahun 2008. Defisit 4.8 peratus ini adalah bersifat sementara, dalam lingkungan yang munasabah memandangkan negara mempunyai kecairan yang mencukupi untuk meminjam daripada pelbagai sumber dalaman.

18.Kerajaan akan mengamalkan dasar “expansionary”, sepertimana juga yang diamalkan oleh negara-negara lain pada masa kini. Dalam konteks Bajet 2009 yang telah dibentangkan, Kerajaan mempunyai fleksibiliti untuk melaksanakan projek-projek tambahan berimpak tinggi berikutan daripada penjimatan subsidi minyak. Melalui penjimatan ini, sukacita diumumkan bahawa Kerajaan akan melaksanakan pelbagai inisiatif melibatkan suntikan peruntukan sebanyak 7 bilion ringgit. Ini adalah penting untuk memangkinkan aktiviti ekonomi dalam negeri, serta merangsang keyakinan sektor swasta dan menjamin kesejahteraan rakyat.

19.Kerajaan sedar bahawa harga barang masih ditahap yang membebankan pengguna. Namun langkah-langkah proaktif sedang diambil seperti kempen penurunan harga barang oleh pasaraya yang berkaitan. Apabila harga minyak turun, sewajarnya harga barang juga turun. Oleh itu, para peniaga disaran agar lebih bertanggungjawab dengan tidak terlalu mengaut keuntungan di samping pengguna wajar mengambil langkah bijak ketika berbelanja. Kadar inflasi pada 2009 dijangka berada pada tahap 3 hingga 4 peratus, jika harga minyak sedunia kekal dalam trend menurun sebagaimana sekarang.

20.Mengenai penstabilan harga kelapa sawit, Malaysia dan Indonesia akan terus bekerjasama rapat. Antara langkah yang diambil ialah megurangkan bekalan sawit melalui program penanaman semula. Selain itu, usaha untuk mengeluarkan biodiesel daripada sawit, iaitu adunan 5 peratus biobahan api sawit (metil ester) dengan diesel fosil, akan sentiasa dipertingkatkan bagi menambah permintaan terhadap sawit. Mulai bulan Februari 2009, biodiesel ini akan digunakan bermula dengan kenderaan-kenderaan Kerajaan, diikuti dengan sektor industri dan sektor pengangkutan. Pengadunan ini dianggarkan akan memerlukan sebanyak 500,000 tan minyak sawit setahun apabila dilaksanakan sepenuhnya pada awal tahun 2010.

21.Kerajaan memang memberi perhatian kepada pekebun kecil terutamanya yang terlibat dalam sektor pertanian. Bagi mengurangkan kos input pertanian terutamanya baja, Kerajaan bersetuju memansuhkan duti import sebanyak 5 peratus yang dikenakan ke atas 7 jenis baja. Ini adalah tambahan kepada penghapusan duti import ke atas satu jenis baja semasa pembentangan Bajet 2009. Dengan langkah ini, semua baja mineral yang diimport tidak lagi dikenakan duti. Di samping itu, dengan penurunan harga minyak mentah, pihak industri pengeluar baja tempatan telah bersetuju untuk membantu usaha kerajaan dalam mengurangkan sekurang-kurangnya 15 peratus harga baja dengan serta merta.

22.Dalam usaha memperkukuhkan daya tahan negara dan mengekalkan momentum pertumbuhan ekonomi dalam menghadapi persekitaran global yang semakin mencabar, Kerajaan akan melaksanakan langkah-langkah tambahan dalam Bajet 2009. Penekanan akan diberi untuk menggalakkan aktiviti ekonomi domestik bagi menjana pertumbuhan ekonomi. Dasar “export-led recovery”, yang diamalkan semasa krisis kewangan 1997/98 dengan jayanya, tidak dapat dilaksanakan dalam suasana kini, memandangkan keadaan permintaan dan perdagangan antarabangsa semakin lembab.

23.Pembentangan Bajet 2009 yang lalu telah mengambilkira dan mengunjurkan senario global yang mencabar bagi tahun 2009. Namun, perubahan perkembangan ekonomi global yang mendadak sejak akhir-akhir ini memerlukan kita mengambil tindakan proaktif untuk menangani kesan daripada krisis global masa kini. Keadaan yang luar biasa memerlukan tindakan yang juga luar biasa ataupun dengan izin, “extraordinary times, require extraordinary measures”.

24.Kerajaan sedar bahawa langkah-langkah tambahan biasanya tidak diumumkan dalam ucapan penggulungan. Walaupun pengumuman langkah tambahan ini mungkin merupakan tindakan “unprecedented”, ini perlu dalam suasana global yang semakin getir. Perlu ditekankan bahawa jumlah perbelanjaan yang dibentang pada Bajet 2009 masih tidak berubah. Segala perbelanjaan yang digunakan untuk langkah-langkah tambahan ini adalah hasil penjimatan dari subsidi minyak.

25.Pembangkang telah mencadangkan suatu bajet alternatif yang bersifat menguncup (contractionary) dengan potongan sebanyak 24 bilion ringgit daripada jumlah Bajet 2009. Ini adalah suatu cadangan yang akan membawa ke lembah kehancuran ekonomi sebagaimana yang pernah dicadangkan pada tahun 1997 oleh Menteri Kewangan ketika itu. Sebaliknya, cadangan yang diumumkan ini adalah bersifat expansionary sebagai penjana pertumbuhan yang berganda sifatnya. Ketika ekonomi dunia menguncup, langkah yang tepat ialah menyuntik dana tambahan agar ekonomi tidak mengalami kemelesetan, sebaliknya boleh terus berkembang. Inilah perbezaan yang amat ketara antara cadangan bernas kerajaan dan cadangan hampas pihak pembangkang.

26.Kerajaan akan melaksanakan dasar fiskal yang mengembang (expansionary). Untuk ini, Kerajaan akan menyemak semula projek-projek dengan tujuan untuk memberi keutamaan kepada projek yang boleh dilaksanakan segera serta mempunyai kesan pengganda yang tinggi (high multiplier effect) dan kandungan import yang rendah. Ini akan dilaksanakan tanpa menjejaskan jumlah perbelanjaan pembangunan yang telah diperuntukkan bagi tahun 2009 sebelum ini. Sebagai contoh, Kerajaan telah menangguhkan pembelian helikopter untuk Kementerian Pertahanan dan Kementerian Dalam Negeri, supaya penjimatan ini boleh digunakan bagi projek pembangunan yang lain.

Tuan Yang Dipertua,

27.Sebagai tanda dan bukti kerajaan amat prihatin tentang kesejahteraan rakyat, maka penjimatan 7 bilion ringgit daripada subsidi minyak akan disalurkan seperti berikut:

Pertama:
* Untuk memastikan lebih ramai rakyat mampu untuk memiliki rumah, sebanyak 1.2 billion ringgit diperuntukkan bagi membina lebih banyak rumah kos rendah dan sederhana.


* Dengan peruntukan tambahan ini, sebanyak 6,500 unit rumah akan dibina oleh Syarikat Perumahan Negara Berhad, sebanyak 4,000 unit rumah akan dibina di bawah Program Perumahan Rakyat di bawah Kementerian Perumahan dan Kerajaan Tempatan dan 15,000 unit rumah yang bernilai diantara 30 ribu ringgit hingga 35 ribu ringgit sebuah untuk Semenanajung dan di antara 35 ribu ringgit hingga 40 ribu ringgit untuk Sabah dan Sarawak. Rumah ini akan dibina di bawah Program Perumahan Rakyat Termiskin di bawah Kementerian Kemajuan Luar Bandar dan Wilayah. Dianggarkan secara purata, sebanyak 100 buah rumah PPRT akan dibina di setiap daerah di seluruh negara.


* Program Amal Jariah, yang dikendalikan oleh Prokhas, anak syarikat Menteri Kewangan Diperbadankan, adalah bertujuan membaikpulih rumah usang rakyat miskin tegar supaya mereka dapat menikmati rumah yang selesa dan selamat didiami. Program yang mula dilancarkan pada awal tahun ini, telah berjaya membaik pulih 7,000 unit rumah yang dianggar melibatkan peruntukan sebanyak 40 juta ringgit. Pada tahun 2009, Prokhas akan membaiki 15,000 unit rumah sementara Khazanah Nasional akan menyelaraskan usaha-usaha syarikat GLC untuk melaksanakan Program Sejahtera yang melibatkan pembaikan 5,000 buah rumah.
* Selain itu, untuk memudahkan golongan berpendapatan rendah yang tidak mempunyai pendapatan tetap mendapatkan pinjaman perumahan, Kerajaan telah menyediakan Skim Jaminan Kredit Perumahan bagi pinjaman perolehan rumah sehingga 100 ribu ringgit. Semenjak dilancarkan, sebanyak 800 peminjam, termasuk peniaga kecil, petani dan nelayan, telah diluluskan pinjaman berjumlah 35 juta ringgit.

Kedua:
* Bagi mengiktiraf peranan anggota keselamatan dan menjaga kebajikan mereka, sebanyak 500 juta ringgit diperuntukkan bagi menaik taraf, membaik pulih dan menyelenggara balai dan kuarters polis serta kem dan kuarters tentera iaitu 250 juta ringgit untuk polis dan 250 juta ringgit juga untuk tentera.


* Projek ini akan dilaksanakan dengan segera kerana pada pandangan kerajaan, kebajikan anggota pasukan keselamatan wajar sentiasa didahulukan.

Ketiga:
* Sebanyak 600 juta ringgit diperuntukkan bagi projek-projek kecil di bawah program Penyelenggaraan Infrastruktur Awam (PIA) dan Projek Infrastruktur Asas (PIAS), contohnya menyenggara jalan kampung, membina balai raya dan jambatan kecil.


* Peruntukan ini akan dapat juga membantu kontraktor-kontraktor kecil bagi menyelesaikan masalah kekurangan projek pembinaan. Selain itu, ia dapat memberikan prasarana yang lebih sempurna kepada rakyat, khasnya di luar bandar.

Keempat:
* Sebanyak 500 juta ringgit diperuntukkan bagi menyenggara dan membaik pulih kemudahan awam; antaranya sekolah, hospital dan jalanraya.

Kelima:
* Sebanyak 500 juta ringgit akan diperuntukan untuk membina, menaiktaraf jalan-jalan di luar bandar, jalan-jalan kampung dan jalan-jalan pertanian, termasuk di Sabah dan Sarawak.


* Sekali lagi ini melambangkan keprihatinan kerajaan bagi mengembangkan sektor pembinaan yang mempunyai kesan gandaan tinggi selain memastikan budaya penyelenggaraan dijadikan amalan. Pada ketika yang sama, kebajikan rakyat dalam pendidikan, perubatan dan perhubungan dapat diperbaiki.

Keenam:
* Untuk merangsangkan lagi pendidikan negara dan mengambil kira kehendak semua kaum, maka kerajaan akan memperuntukkan sebanyak 200 juta ringgit kepada empat kumpulan sekolah, iaitu 50 juta ringgit untuk sekolah agama bantuan kerajaan, 50 juta ringgit untuk “mission school”, 50 juta ringgit untuk SJK Cina dan 50 juta ringgit untuk SJK Tamil.

Ketujuh:
* Sebanyak 300 juta ringgit diperuntukkan bagi menubuhkan dana untuk melaksanakan program latihan kemahiran yang ditumpukan ke arah memenuhi keperluan majikan dan industri, terutamanya di Koridor-koridor Pembangunan. Agihan dana ini akan diselaraskan dengan pihak berkuasa koridor pertumbuhan, Pusat Pembangunan Kemahiran Negeri dan lain-lain organisasi yang berkaitan. Sektor yang akan diberi tumpuan untuk latihan tersebut adalah sektor pelancongan, kesihatan, pembinaan dan “business process outsourcing”.

Kelapan:
* Kerajaan amat sedar bahawa kos sara hidup di bandar adalah tinggi termasuk untuk menampung kos pengangkutan. Oleh itu, Kerajaan akan memperuntukkan sebanyak 500 juta ringgit bagi menyelenggara dan memantapkan lagi sistem pengangkutan awam khususnya sistem LRT, Komuter dan sistem bas di bandar-bandar utama.


* Seperti yang dibentang oleh YAB Perdana Menteri, kerajaan adalah komited untuk meperluaskan sistem pengangkutan awam agar lebih cekap dan “reliable”, termasuk melaksanakan projek utama seperti penambahan sistem LRT, meningkatkan kapasiti aliran Kelana Jaya dan aliran Ampang, memperluaskan lagi perkhidmatan rel di Lembah Klang dan mengujudkan satu aliran baru dari Kota Damansara ke Cheras. Kesemua usaha ini akan memberi manfaat kepada lebih 1 juta pengguna.

Kesembilan:
* Sebanyak 1.5 bilion ringgit diperuntukkan bagi menubuhkan Dana Pelaburan untuk menarik lebih banyak pelaburan sektor swasta;


* Dana ini adalah bertujuan menarik aktiviti pelaburan swasta yang berdaya maju. Tumpuan akan diberi kepada sektor strategik yang bernilai tambah tinggi dan projek berimpak besar dari segi nilai pelaburan, teknologi dan “knowledge workers”.


* Dana ini akan digunakan untuk memberi geran, pinjaman mudah atau modal ekuiti kepada pelabur. Pendekatan sebegini telah berjaya menarik pelabur dalam sektor perkhidmatan berteknologi tinggi, seperti Dell, Hewlett Packard dan Satyam, ke Cyberjaya serta dalam sektor pembuatan bernilai tambah yang tinggi, seperti pengeluaran panel solar, industri aeroangkasa dan komponen kapal terbang.

Kesepuluh:
* Sebanyak 400 juta ringgit diperuntukkan bagi menyegerakan pelaksanaan Projek Jalur Lebar Berkelajuan Tinggi.


* Projek Jalur Lebar Berkelajuan Tinggi ini adalah penting untuk memastikan daya saing negara pada masa hadapan. Prasarana sebegini akan meningkatkan kecekapan dan keberkesanan aktiviti ekonomi, perniagaan dan seterusnya melonjakkan negara ke tahap nilai tambah yang lebih tinggi. Selain itu, pelaksanaan projek ini akan meningkatkan kualiti hidup rakyat di samping menjadi pemangkin kepada pelaburan swasta dalam sektor berteknologi tinggi. Ia juga akan menyumbang kepada pertumbuhan KDNK dan menambahkan peluang pekerjaan. Menjelang akhir 2009, perkhidmatan ini akan dapat disediakan kepada 300,000 premis, terutamanya di Lembah Klang dan juga kawasan industri seperti di Bayan Baru, Senai dan Kulim.


* Pihak pembangkang telah mencadangkan agar projek ini dikaji semula. Sebenarnya, jika kita lambat untuk melaksanakannya, negara akan terus tertinggal ke belakang di dalam arus kepesatan teknologi moden, selaras dengan keperluan pembangunan ekonomi masa kini.

Kesebelas:
* Untuk membina modal insan melalui program-program latihan yang diurus oleh kementerian yang berkaitan, kerajaan akan memperuntukkan sebanyak 200 juta ringgit. Ini adalah peruntukan bagi membiayai program daripada institusi latihan swasta dan pesertanya terdiri daripada golongan belia dan beliawanis daripada semua kaum. Nama-nama pelatih boleh dikemukakan oleh kementerian yang berkenaan seperti Kementerian Belia dan Sukan, Pembangunan Usahawan dan Koperasi, Sumber Manusia serta Pembangunan Wanita dan Keluarga.

Keduabelas
* Untuk memperkasakan golongan belia melalui program program baru, kerajaan akan memperuntukkan sebanyak 100 juta ringgit. Antara program yang terlibat ialah rakan muda sekolah, rakan muda sektoral yang melibatkan kampung baru Cina, estet untuk kaum India, kampung orang asli dan kaum pribumi di Sabah dan Sarawak.

Ketigabelas
* Untuk menggerakkan semula projek perumahan yang terbengkalai di kawasan-kawasan strategik terpilih dan berdaya maju, kerajaan bersetuju untuk memperuntukkan sebanyak 200 juta ringgit. Projek ini akan diuruskan oleh Syarikat Perumahan Negara Berhad (SPNB).

Keempatbelas
* Untuk menambahkan premis perniagaan di samping memperindahkan suasana pekan-pekan kecil yang terpilih di seluruh negara, kerajaan akan memperuntukkan sebanyak 100 juta ringgit. Ini akan dapat menambah bilangan usahawan kecil dan sederhana, termasuk memasarkan produk keluaran tempatan. Program ini akan dilaksanakan oleh MARA di bawah Kementerian Pembangunan Usahawan dan Koperasi.

Kelima belas:
* Untuk melahirkan generasi masa hadapan yang lebih berkualiti, sebanyak 200 juta ringgit diperuntukkan untuk pendidikan awal kanak-kanak di peringkat umur 1 hingga 6 tahun. Ini termasuk program seperti PERMATA negara, Tadika KEMAS, Tadika Perpaduan dan kelas Pra-Sekolah.

28.Penjimatan 7 billion yang diperolehi daripada subsidi ini akan diperuntukkan semula oleh Kementerian Kewangan untuk melaksanakan projek-projek yang telah disebutkan. Penjimatan ini merupakan suatu rahmat untuk diagihkan kepada rakyat di samping dapat menjana pertumbuhan ekonomi. Usaha- usaha ini akan memberikan kesan positif antara lain dalam sektor pembinaan, perumahan, pengangkutan, pelaburan, latihan dan teknologi maklumat.

29.Kerajaan sedar bahawa di dalam keadaan ekonomi yang tidak menentu, kepantasan bertindak untuk melaksanakan semua program yang baru disebutkan tadi adalah amat kritikal. Oleh itu, kerajaan akan menubuhkan Unit Pengurusan Projek (Project Management Unit - PMU) di bawah Kementerian Kewangan untuk memantau dan menyelaras pelaksanaan projek kritikal dan berimpak tinggi, ke arah memastikan pelaksanaan yang cekap dan berkesan. Tumpuan akan diberi bagi projek yang mempunyai kesan pengganda yang tinggi serta kritikal bagi menjana pertumbuhan ekonomi. Unit ini akan melapor terus kepada Menteri Kewangan dan dianggotai oleh pegawai-pegawai kanan kerajaan, badan kawal selia, dan syarikat berkaitan kerajaan yang terpilih.

30.Sebagai satu langkah baru untuk menjana pendapatan tambahan dan mencetuskan kegiatan ekonomi tempatan yang lebih rancak, Kerajaan bercadang untuk memaksimumkan pulangan daripada semua aset yang sedia ada termasuk tanah-tanah yang belum dibangunkan lagi. Antara aset tersebut ialah tanah di lokasi strategik yang boleh dimajukan. Sehubungan dengan ini, kerajaan bercadang untuk menggunakan kaedah baru, iaitu dengan memanggil tender terbuka, yang melibatkan sektor swasta dan GLC bagi memajukan tanah tersebut. Kerajaan akan menentukan kriteria dan skop pelan pembangunan yang akan disertai dalam syarat syarat tawaran. Sekiranya konsep pembangunan ini dapat dilaksanakan, kerajaan dijangka akan memperolehi pendapatan yang besar. Kerajaan akan mengenal pasti aset-aset, dalam bentuk tanah-tanah yang strategik, yang boleh ditawarkan di bawah inisiatif ini termasuk tanah Lembaga Getah Malaysia di Sungai Buloh, tanah Kerajaan di Jalan Cochrane dan Jalan Ampang Hilir, Kuala Lumpur.

31.Walaupun kita menghadapi kemelut ekonomi global, Kerajaan akan tetap mampu untuk memperluaskan liputan Jaringan Keselamatan Sosial ke arah meningkatkan pendapatan dan kuasa beli rakyat yang miskin dan berpendapatan rendah. Dalam hal ini, usaha sedang dilaksanakan ke arah pendaftaran serta liputan penuh penerima bantuan berdasarkan tahap kelayakan baru yang diumumkan pada pembentangan Bajet 2009 yang lalu. Syarat asas pemberian Bantuan Kebajikan Bulanan di bawah Jabatan Kebajikan Masyarakat (JKM) telah di naikkan daripada 400 ringgit kepada 720 ringgit untuk Semenanjung Malaysia, 830 ringgit untuk Sarawak dan 960 ringgit untuk Sabah, selaras dengan Pendapatan Garis Kemiskinan. Dengan ini, bilangan isirumah yang akan menerima bantuan akan meningkat daripada 55,000 kepada 110,000 orang. Kerajaan mensasarkan liputan penuh akan dicapai pada akhir tahun ini. 32.Pada masa ini, caruman majikan kepada KWSP adalah 12 peratus manakala caruman pekerja adalah 11 peratus. Sebagai langkah untuk menambah pendapatan boleh guna pekerja, Kerajaan akan membenarkan pekerja untuk mengurangkan potongan caruman pekerja KWSP secara sukarela sebanyak 3 peratus selama 2 tahun, mulai 1 Januari 2009. Dengan penurunan ini, jumlah caruman masih pada tahap munasabah 20 peratus, iaitu 12 peratus majikan dan 8 peratus pekerja. Seseorang yang berpendapatan 2,000 ringgit sebulan akan memperolehi pendapatan boleh guna tambahan sebanyak 60 ringgit sebulan, manakala seseorang yang berpendapatan 6,000 ringgit sebulan akan memperolehi pendapatan boleh guna tambahan sebanyak 180 ringgit sebulan. Sekiranya semua pencarum memilih untuk mengurangkan caruman, jumlah yang terlibat adalah 4.8 bilion ringgit setahun. Sekiranya kita mengandaikan bahawa hanya 50 peratus daripada pencarum akan menggunakan kemudahan ini, perbelanjaan penggunaan swasta dijangka meningkat sebanyak 2.4 bilion ringgit.

33.Untuk memudahkan penjawat awam memiliki kereta, Kerajaan akan meningkatkan had kelayakan pinjaman kereta bagi penjawat awam seperti berikut:

·Bagi gred JUSA, had kelayakan dinaikkan daripada 60,000 ringgit kepada 70,000 ringgit; ·Bagi gred 41 hingga 54, had kelayakan dinaikkan daripada 55,000 ringgit kepada 65,000 ringgit; dan ·Bagi kumpulan sokongan, had kelayakan dinaikkan daripada 45,000 ringgit kepada 55,000 ringgit.

Penjawat awam juga akan diberi kebenaran untuk mengambil pinjaman perumahan bagi hartanah di pasaran sekunder di mana hakmilik strata belum dikeluarkan.

34.Kerajaan telah mengumumkan tempoh bayaran balik bagi pinjaman perumahan baru kakitangan Kerajaan dilanjutkan daripada 25 tahun kepada 30 tahun. Untuk memastikan peminjam sedia ada mendapat kemudahan yang sama, peminjam diberi pilihan untuk melanjutkan tempoh pinjaman kepada 30 tahun. Langkah ini akan dapat membantu menambah pendapatan boleh guna peminjam. Sebagai contoh, seorang penjawat awam yang kini mempunyai pinjaman sebanyak 190,000 ringgit selama 25 tahun, dan telah pun menjelaskan pinjaman beliau selama 10 tahun, dengan melanjutkan tempoh pinjamannya, beliau dapat mengurangkan ansuran bulanannya daripada 1,000 ringgit sebulan kepada 820 ringgit sebulan ataupun lebihan pendapatan boleh guna sebanyak 180 ringgit sebulan. Pihak kerajaan, melalui Bank Negara, juga akan menyaran dan menggesa pihak bank mengambil inisiatif untuk memberi kelonggaran dan menstrukturkan semula pinjaman bagi peminjam-peminjam yang memerlukan.

35.Untuk menggalakan perkembangan perniagaan runcit dan industri pelancongan domestik, maka kerajaan melalui Kementerian Perdagangan Dalam Negeri dan Hal Ehwal Pengguna, memberi kebenaran untuk pasar raya besar (hypermarkets) melanjutkan masa perniagaan sehingga jam 11 malam pada hari biasa. Pada hujung minggu pula, ia boleh dibuka sehingga jam 1 pagi. Untuk pasar raya di pusat membeli belah, premis ini boleh dibuka sepanjang masa tertakluk kepada kebenaran kerajaan tempatan. Selain itu, langkah ini adalah selaras dengan objektif untuk menjadikan negara sebagai destinasi membeli-belah yang menarik. Kerajaan berharap dengan langkah ini, kompleks membeli-belah akan terus menyambut dengan baik usaha kempen penurunan harga barang yang telah dimulakan baru-baru ini.

36.Kerajaan juga komited kepada usaha meliberalisasikan sektor perkhidmatan di bawah Perjanjian Rangka Kerja Perkhidmatan ASEAN (AFAS), Pertubuhan Perdagangan Dunia (WTO) dan Perjanjian Perdagangan Bebas (FTA) di peringkat dua hala dan serantau. Di bawah AFAS, semua sektor perkhidmatan akan dibuka sehingga 70 peratus pegangan asing pada 2015. Antara sektor yang akan dibuka termasuklah sektor logistik, aktiviti-akitiviti tertentu dalam sektor telekomunikasi, pelancongan, perkhidmatan hospital swasta dan sektor pengajian tinggi. Kerajaan akan membuat pengumuman terperinci setelah mendapat kelulusan Kabinet berasaskan cadangan daripada Kementerian Perdagagangan Antarabangsa dan Industri .

37.Dalam hal ini, Kerajaan juga akan memberi tumpuan kepada pembangunan keupayaan dan modal insan. Kapasiti sektor perkhidmatan akan ditingkatkan melalui program latihan pekerja tempatan serta memudahkan pengaliran masuk pekerja mahir dan profesional asing. 38.Pelancongan kesihatan dan pendidikan merupakan subsektor yang berpotensi besar dalam sektor perkhidmatan. Untuk terus merangsang dalam subsektor tersebut, Kerajaan akan menyediakan garis panduan untuk memudahcara pengambilan profesional dan pelatih asing, memudahkan pengiktirafan kelayakan asing, memudahcara proses visa bagi pesakit dan keluarga serta menyelaras syarat-syarat berkaitan dengan penubuhan dan operasi hospital dan pusat latihan kesihatan. Pendekatan yang serupa akan diambil bagi subsektor pelancongan pendidikan, termasuk penubuhan sekolah swasta antarabangsa, dengan tumpuan diberi kepada koridor pertumbuhan seperti Iskandar Malaysia.

39.Untuk menggalakkan aktiviti sektor swasta, langkah-langkah liberalisasi berikut akan diambil: Pertama: ·Menghapuskan duti import bagi simen dan keluaran besi keluli panjang (long iron and steel products) untuk sektor pembinaan dan pembuatan. Di samping itu, semua Approved Permit (AP) bagi keluaran besi keluli panjang akan dikecualikan. Langkah ini akan dapat menyokong usaha Kerajaan untuk merangsang pertumbuhan sektor pembinaan, di samping menyediakan persekitaran yang kompetitif dalam industri bekalan bahan binaan negara; Kedua: ·Membenarkan individu atau entiti asing untuk membeli hartanah komersil bernilai 500,000 ringgit atau lebih, tanpa memerlukan kelulusan FIC, dengan syarat hartanah tersebut adalah untuk kegunaan sendiri. Langkah ini adalah untuk menggalakkan pelaburan, terutamanya pembangunan sektor hartanah negara; Ketiga: ·Bagi memudahkan proses pengambilan pekerja asing berasaskan pengetahuan (knowledge worker), permit kerja, yang pada masa ini diberi kepada majikan, akan juga diberi secara langsung kepada pekerja tersebut. Oleh itu, langkah ini akan meningkatkan fleksibiliti pekerja demikian dalam pasaran kerja, kerana mereka tidak akan terikat dengan majikan masing-masing.

40.Pertumbuhan ekonomi yang lebih perlahan akan membawa kepada penjanaan peluang pekerjaan yang lebih lembab dan juga pengangguran. Oleh itu, dalam usaha menyediakan lebih banyak peluang latihan dan pekerjaan, Kerajaan akan mengambil langkah-langkah berikut:

Pertama: ·Kerajaan, melalui syarikat GLCs seperti Khazanah dan PNB akan melancarkan “Graduate Employability Management Scheme” (GEMS), yang didasarkan kepada skim graduan terdahulu yang telah dilaksanakan oleh syarikat-syarikat GLC dengan jayanya. Kerajaan bercadang untuk menyokong dan menyelaraskan usaha-usaha GLC dalam menangani masalah graduan menganggur ini dengan mewujudkan satu program bagi meningkatkan keupayaan dan kemahiran mereka sebelum mereka diserap atau mendapat pekerjaan di syarikat GLC mahupun swasta. Sasaran program ini ialah untuk melatih sehingga 12,000 graduan dalam jangkamasa dua tahun. Kerajaan yakin, progam ini dapat menyumbang kepada pertumbuhan penggunaan domestik di samping memberi pengalaman yang berharga kepada graduan terlibat.

Kedua: Mempercepatkan pengambilan kakitangan bagi jawatan yang kritikal dan amat diperlukan dalam sektor awam. Pada masa ini, kekosongan jawatan kritikal dalam sektor awam adalah 18,000. Kekosongan ini akan diisi secara kontrak, sementara menunggu proses pelantikan secara tetap. Dalam tahun ini, lebih 1,300 kakitangan telah dilantik secara kontrak bagi Jabatan Kerja Raya bagi meningkatkan keupayaannya dalam melaksanakan projek-projek di bawah Rancangan Malaysia Kesembilan. Saya ingin mengambil kesempatan ini untuk menegaskan bahawa Kerajaan tidak bercadang untuk memberhentikan kakitangan kontrak di dalam perkhidmatan Kerajaan sebagaimana dilaporkan dalam media.

41.Untuk membantu usahawan yang menjalankan perniagaan kecil, Bank Negara Malaysia akan menyediakan pinjaman mudah sebanyak 200 juta ringgit bagi melaksanakan skim mikro kredit. Dana tambahan ini akan diselaras dan diagihkan melalui saluran sedia ada. Selain itu, Kerajaan juga telah menyediakan dana modal pusingan 100 juta ringgit untuk Program Kewangan Mikro Bandar. Program ini diletakkan di bawah Amanah Ikhtiar Malaysia (AIM) memandangkan kejayaan program yang sama bagi kawasan luar bandar. Semenjak dilancarkan awal tahun ini, Program Kewangan Mikro Bandar sehingga kini telah mengeluarkan pembiayaan melebihi setengah juta ringgit kepada hampir 200 peminjam.

42.Untuk merangsang aktiviti pasaran modal, saya telah mengumumkan penambahan dana Valuecap sebanyak 5 bilion ringgit untuk pembelian ekuiti syarikat-syarikat yang mempunyai asas yang kukuh tetapi nilai pasaran mereka kini terjejas berikutan kesan pergolakan pasaran ekuiti global. Dana tambahan ini akan diperolehi melalui pinjaman daripada Kumpulan Wang Simpanan Pekerja (KWSP) yang dijamin oleh Kerajaan. Oleh itu, pinjaman ini bukan sahaja menjamin pulangan yang lebih tinggi daripada kadar deposit institusi perbankan, tetapi juga merupakan pelaburan yang mempunyai risiko yang paling minimum kepada KWSP.

43.Pemegang ekuiti Valuecap, iaitu Khazanah Malaysia, Permodalan Nasional Berhad (PNB) dan Kumpulan Wang Persaraan (KWAP), merupakan agensi-agensi Kerajaan yang mempunyai kedudukan kewangan yang kukuh dan pelabur terbesar dalam pasaran ekuiti negara. Valuecap ditubuhkan pada tahun 2003 dengan dana sebanyak 5 bilion ringgit. Sebagai pelabur jangka panjang, Valuecap melabur dalam syarikat-syarikat blue chips di sektor-sektor utama seperti kewangan, perkhidmatan, perladangan, pembinaan, hartanah, industri, tenaga, dan komunikasi. Valuecap mempunyai mandat untuk melabur dalam mana-mana syarikat dan bukan sahaja dalam syarikat berkaitan Kerajaan (GLCs). Langkah yang serupa juga telah dilaksanakan di beberapa negara, seperti Tracker Fund of Hong Kong semasa krisis kewangan tahun 1998 dan baru-baru ini, oleh Qatar Investment Authority dan juga sebuah dana pencen terbesar di Korea.

44.Untuk melancarkan lagi proses perolehan kerajaan supaya lebih telus dan mendapat “value for money”, kerajaan akan memastikan bahawa sebahagian besar perolehan kerajaan akan dilakukan melalui tender terbuka dan tender terhad. Perolehan kerajaan untuk kontrak-kontrak bumiputera juga akan ditenderkan melalui “competitive bidding” di kalangan syarikat-syarikat bumiputera. Hasrat kerajaan ialah supaya kontraktor-kontraktor bumiputera dapat bersaing dengan sihat dan meningkatkan lagi daya tahan mereka. Walau bagaimanapun, kerajaan masih ada budi bicara untuk menimbangkan rundingan terus atas pertimbangan tertentu. Pengecualian daripada dasar ini akan hanya dibuat di dalam keadaan tertentu sahaja.

45.Langkah-langkah yang diumumkan ini, Insya-Allah, akan dapat menangani impak daripada suasana global yang mencabar. Saya yakin kesejahteraan rakyat akan terus dapat dijamin manakala pembangunan negara akan terus dapat dilaksanakan dengan jayanya. Tuan Yang Dipertua,

46.Dengan penjelasan tentang senario ekonomi global dan domestik serta langkah-langkah tambahan Bajet 2009 di atas, saya berpendapat beberapa isu utama berhubung Bajet 2009 yang dibangkitkan oleh Ahli Yang Berhormat Ketua Pembangkang dan Ahli-ahli Yang Berhormat yang lain telah dijawab. Saya juga ingin mengambil kesempatan ini untuk menjawab isu-isu lain yang telah dibangkitkan oleh ahli-ahli di Dewan yang mulia ini.

II.PENGURUSAN MAKROEKONOMI

Pelaburan Langsung Asing (FDI)

47.Ahli Yang Berhormat Batu Pahat meminta Kerajaan menyediakan pelan yang lebih rapi dan melaksanakan pendekatan baru untuk menarik pelaburan langsung asing (FDI), khususnya daripada pelabur Timur Tengah. Untuk makluman Ahli Yang Berhormat, Kerajaan telah melaksanakan pelbagai langkah dalam menarik pelaburan asing ke Malaysia. Ini termasuk langkah mengurangkan kos dalam menjalankan perniagaan melalui penambahbaikan proses dan mekanisme, menyediakan program perancangan dan pembiayaan perniagaan bersepadu bagi merangsang pelaburan industri serta mengkaji semula perundangan dan peraturan berkaitan pelaburan yang menghalang pembangunan industri. Langkah-langkah ini telah menunjukkan kejayaan di mana FDI bagi tempoh Januari hingga Ogos 2008 adalah 36.8 bilion ringgit, berbanding jumlah FDI keseluruhan tahun 2007 iaitu 33.4 bilion ringgit.

48.Langkah baru untuk menubuhkan Dana Pelaburan yang diumumkan tadi akan dilaksanakan segera bagi menyokong usaha menarik FDI yang lebih tinggi. Selain itu, Kerajaan akan menyokong inisiatif peneraju Koridor Pembangunan untuk membuat misi pelaburan ke luar negara, terutamanya India, China dan Timur Tengah dalam usaha untuk menarik pelaburan yang tinggi dan mapan.

Pelaburan Dalam Sektor Teknologi Tinggi

49.Ahli Yang Berhormat Kuala Selangor meminta Kerajaan memberi penekanan terhadap pelaburan dalam sektor selain daripada yang berintensif buruh, khususnya kepada sektor berasaskan teknologi tinggi. Untuk makluman, Kerajaan sentiasa memberi penekanan kepada pelaburan yang berasaskan pengetahuan (knowledge-intensive) dan teknologi terkini berbanding berasaskan buruh. Ini dapat dilihat daripada inisiatif-inisiatif Kerajaan dengan pembangunan koridor pertumbuhan wilayah, termasuk Iskandar Malaysia yang memberi penekanan kepada sektor perkhidmatan, yang mempunyai nilai tambah yang tinggi. Kerajaan sedang giat memajukan industri yang berpotensi, seperti kewangan Islam, pelancongan, pendidikan dan logistik yang memerlukan pengetahuan dan kemahiran yang tinggi.

50.Pada masa yang sama, bagi sektor yang berintensifkan buruh seperti pembinaan dan pertanian, Kerajaan juga telah mengambil langkah seperti menggalakkan penggunaan automasi dan jentera di ladang-ladang dan penggunaan sistem industrialised building system (IBS) dalam sektor pembinaan yang seterusnya mengurangkan pergantungan terhadap buruh asing. Dalam hal ini, Kerajaan akan memastikan bahawa kandungan IBS dalam semua projek Kerajaan adalah sekurang-kurangnya 70 peratus.

III.DASAR PERCUKAIAN DAN SUBSIDI

51.Ahli Yang Berhormat Bagan membuat saranan supaya mengurangkan cukai syarikat secara progresif daripada 25 peratus kepada 17 peratus. Untuk makluman Ahli Yang Berhormat, kadar cukai korporat telah diturunkan dari 28 peratus pada tahun taksiran 2006 kepada 25 peratus pada tahun taksiran 2009. Cukai korporat di Malaysia adalah kompetitif berbanding di negara-negara lain. Sebagai contoh, kadar cukai korporat di India, Indonesia, United Kingdom, Jepun dan Australia adalah 30 peratus.

52.Beliau juga menyentuh perubahan harga petrol secara harian dibuat selaras dengan perubahan harga pasaran harian minyak mentah dunia. Berkenaan dengan cadangan perubahan harga secara harian, ia hanya boleh dilaksanakan pada keadaan di mana harga minyak runcit di stesen minyak diapungkan sepenuhnya. Ini kerana di dalam keadaan semasa di mana Kerajaan masih mengawal harga minyak runcit di stesen minyak serta memberikan subsidi, penetapan harga minyak secara harian adalah tidak efisien dan menimbulkan banyak masalah pentadbiran.

IV.KEWANGAN DAN PERBANKAN

Pembelian Ekuiti Bank Internasional Indonesia (BII)

53. Ahli Yang Berhormat Permatang Pauh meminta penjelasan terhadap pembelian 35 peratus saham BII oleh Maybank. Suka saya memperjelaskan di sini, dakwaan bahawa keputusan pembelian tersebut melibatkan Menteri Kewangan adalah tidak benar. Ini adalah suatu transaksi komersil dan keputusan hala tuju bank serta pelaburannya ditentukan oleh Lembaga Pengarah Maybank dan pemegang saham bank tersebut. Selaras dengan urus tadbir korporat yang telus, Lembaga Pengarah adalah bertanggung jawab terhadap keputusan yang telah dibuat.

54.Ahli Yang Berhormat Pontian meminta Kerajaan terus mengeksport kepakaran dalam sistem perbankan Islam, khususnya ke negara-negara Timur Tengah dan mencadangkan tindakan lebih agresif diambil bagi memperkenalkan perbankan Islam ke luar negara. Untuk makluman Ahli Yang Berhormat, Kerajaan sememangnya memandang serius usaha untuk menghasilkan modal insan atau sumber manusia berkepakaran tinggi dalam kewangan Islam, terutamanya golongan profesional kewangan Islam yang mahir dalam syariah serta berpengetahuan dengan amalan terkini industri.

55.Menjelang tahun 2010, diunjurkan kira-kira 11,600 kakitangan terlatih dan profesional dalam kewangan Islam diperlukan dan jumlah itu meliputi 31 peratus daripada jumlah keseluruhan profesional terlatih dalam sektor perbankan di negara ini. Kerajaan berkeyakinan unjuran permintaan di atas dapat dipenuhi dengan adanya strategi menyeluruh yang sedang dilaksanakan oleh Kerajaan.

Bantuan pinjaman rumah

56. Ahli Yang Berhormat Pulai menyarankan supaya Bajet 2009 mengambil kira bantuan kepada pembeli rumah serta membuat kawalan mengenai kadar inflasi. Untuk makluman Ahli Yang Berhormat, pihak institusi perbankan telah memberikan komitmen untuk membantu meringankan beban peminjam pembeli rumah. Antara usaha-usaha yang telah dilaksanakan adalah seperti berikut: Pertama: i.merangkumkan kos awal seperti fi guaman sebagai sebahagian dari pinjaman. Dalam kes-kes tertentu, institusi perbankan boleh menanggung kos fi guaman dan duti setem bagi pihak pembeli; Kedua: ii.menawarkan produk-produk yang mengenakan kadar pinjaman faedah yang amat kompetitif serta menyediakan skim pinjaman bersama (2 Generasi); dan Ketiga: iii.institusi perbankan bersedia mengadakan rundingan awal dengan peminjam sebelum mereka menghadapi masalah bayaran balik. Institusi perbankan juga bersedia menstrukturkan semula pinjaman dengan melanjutkan tempoh pinjaman kepada mereka yang benar-benar menghadapi masalah bayaran balik.

V.PENGURUSAN KONTRAK DAN PEROLEHAN KERAJAAN

Perolehan Helikopter Daripada Eurocopter France

57.Yang Berhormat Permatang Pauh dan Ipoh Timur juga telah membangkitkan beberapa perkara mengenai perolehan 12 unit helikopter daripada Eurocopter France untuk Angkatan Tentera Malaysia (ATM) bagi menggantikan helikopter Nuri.

58.Untuk makluman Ahli-Ahli Yang Berhormat, perolehan pesawat ini dilaksanakan secara Tender Antarabangsa yang mana penilaian teliti telah dibuat oleh Jawatankuasa Teknikal dan Harga dan diperakukan oleh Lembaga Perolehan KEMENTAH sebelum dimajukan kepada Kementerian Kewangan untuk penilaian dan kelulusan. Penilaian tender dibuat berdasarkan dokumen tender yang telah dikemukakan oleh petender-petender dan ia dinilai berdasarkan pematuhan tawaran petender kepada kriteria-kriteria yang telah ditetapkan dalam dokumen tender. Jawatankuasa Kira-Kira Wang Awam (Public Accounts Committee) telah juga mengesahkan bahawa tiada sebarang penyelewengan dari segi tatacara perolehan dan aspek teknikal. Ini bermakna soal skandal yang dijaja oleh pembangkang langsung tidak berbangkit.

Masalah Kontraktor di Sabah

59.Ahli Yang Berhormat Kalabakan menyentuh Kontraktor Bumiputera dan bukan Bumiputera di Sabah yang menghadapi masalah disebabkan peningkatan harga bahan-bahan binaan yang tinggi. Apakah tindakan Kerajaan dalam menangani masalah ini bagi membantu kontraktor di Sabah terus menyiapkan projek Kerajaan yang belum siap.

60.Untuk makluman Ahli yang Berhormat, berikutan kenaikan harga bahan binaan dan harga bahan api yang ditanggung oleh pihak kontraktor dalam melaksanakan projek Kerajaan, khususnya projek di bawah Rancangan Malaysia Kesembilan, Kerajaan telah bersetuju untuk mengkaji syarat perubahan harga bagi memastikan projek Kerajaan tidak terjejas dan dapat disiapkan.

61.Untuk tujuan tersebut, Kementerian Kewangan telah mengeluarkan Surat Pekeliling Perbendaharaan bertarikh 6 Ogos 2008 mengenai syarat dan kaedah pengiraan perubahan harga yang baru. Peraturan baru ini membolehkan syarat perubahan harga khas diberikan kepada projek reka dan bina, di samping menambah bilangan bahan binaan bagi tujuan pengiraan perubahan harga. Pelaksanaan perubahan harga ini turut diberikan kepada kerja-kerja Mekanikal dan Elektrikal, yang sebelum ini tidak mempunyai sebarang peruntukkan perubahan harga bagi kerja berkenaan.

62.Kerajaan juga bersetuju untuk memberikan kemudahan khas kepada kontraktor seperti berikut:

Pertama: (i)lanjutan masa sehingga tiga (3) bulan bagi projek yang masih dalam pembinaan; dan Kedua: (ii)bayaran kemajuan interim dibuat dua (2) kali sebulan mengikut nilai kerja sebenar bagi membantu aliran tunai kontraktor.

Kerajaan yakin bahawa pelaksanaan syarat perubahan harga ini serta kemudahan khas yang diberi dapat membantu mengurangkan beban kewangan yang dihadapi oleh kontraktor di samping memastikan pelaksanaan projek Rancangan Malaysia Kesembilan dapat disiapkan.

VI.PENUTUP

Tuan Yang DiPertua,

63.Selama lebih 5 jam Ketua Pembangkang telah berhujah tentang Bajet 2009. Ia merupakan sesuatu yang luar biasa jika dibanding cuma satu jam setengah masa pembentangan Bajet 2009 oleh YAB Perdana Menteri pada 29 Ogos 2008. Namun tuduhan-tuduhan Permatang Pauh yang menyatakan Bajet 2009 ini tidak boleh digunapakai ternyata meleset. Malah usaha pembangkang untuk menubuhkan kerajaan pada 16 Sept 2008 tidak lebih daripada suatu fatamorgana, mirage, impian yang tidak menjadi kenyataan.

64.Yang pasti, usaha itu telah menyebabkan berlakunya ketidakstabilan suasana harmoni dan merenggangkan keyakinan pelabur asing kepada negara kita. Sesungguhnya kerajaan Barisan Nasional akan terus kukuh bagi menjaga kepentingan pelbagai kaum di negara ini. Semangat Bajet 2009 iaitu Kerajaan Prihatin akan terus menerajui perjuangan murni yang menjadi landasan teras kerajaan Barisan Nasional.

65.Dalam menghadapi persekitaran yang mencabar ini, saya menyeru kepada semua rakyat, baik di dalam atau luar negeri, untuk sama-sama menyumbang ke arah memastikan krisis ini ditangani dengan jayanya. Kita perlu belajar daripada pengalaman yang lalu, di mana kita berjaya mengharungi setiap krisis dengan semangat bersatu padu dan kerjasama yang erat.

66.Semua pihak mempunyai peranan yang penting dalam memastikan negara kita terus membangun dengan maju, tidak kira sektor awam, sektor swasta, badan bukan Kerajaan (NGOs) mahupun parti politik. Saya yakin, gandingan dan usahasama yang jitu akan membolehkan kita berjaya menangani cabaran yang kita sedang hadapi ini, Insya-Allah.

67. Sebesar mana dan setinggi mana pun rempuhan badai kemelesetan ekonomi dunia, akan kita hadapi dengan persiapan rapi. Benteng pertahanan kita wajar semakin tegap dengan sokongan akrab dan dokongan mantap dari semua pihak. Marilah kita menggalas amanah dengan penuh tanggungjawab untuk membina ekonomi negara melalui Bajet 2009 ini. Hasrat murni kita ini dilandasi dengan penuh sifat berhemah dan bijaksana demi mengutamakan kepentingan negara tercinta dan membela rakyat jelata.

Sekian

Kementerian Kewangan Putrajaya

4 November 2008




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